Impacto dos gastos públicos na redução das taxas de acidentes aeronáuticos no Brasil no período de 1996 a 2012

Abstract

Diante do cenário de aumento no número de acidentes, não obstante os investimentos do governo federal no sentido de evitá-los, a pesquisa estruturou-se para responder ao seguinte questionamento: os gastos do governo influenciam as taxas de acidentes aeronáuticos no Brasil? E qual o percentual da variação das taxas de acidentes aeronáuticos pode ser explicada pelos investimentos do governo? Foram testadas três hipóteses, num nível de confiança de 95%, sendo acolhidas suas versões nulas: (HA0) Existe correlação significativa entre os gastos do governo realizados no sentido de prevenir acidentes aeronáuticos e a Taxa de Acidentes Aeronáuticos Reportados (Correlação direta de 72,3%); (HB0) Existe correlação significativa entre os gastos do governo realizados no sentido de prevenir acidentes aeronáuticos e a Taxa de Acidentes Aeronáuticos Fatais (Correlação inversa de 64%); e (HC0) Existe correlação significativa entre os gastos do governo realizados no sentido de prevenir acidentes aeronáuticos e a Taxa de Acidentes Aeronáuticos com Perda Total da Aeronave (Correlação inversa de 55%). Por meio de regressão linear, os modelos estatísticos apresentados permitiram concluir que os gastos do governo explicam 49% da variabilidade da Taxa de Acidentes Reportados; 37% da variabilidade da Taxa de Acidentes Fatais; e 25,5% da variabilidade da Taxa de Acidentes com Perda Total da Aeronave. _________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

In view of the increasing-number-of-accidents scenario in spite of the investments of the federal government aimed at prevention, this work has been structured to answer the following questions: do the government expenditures influence the aeronautical accidents’ rate in Brazil? What percentage of the variability in the rate the aeronautical accidents can be explained by such investments? Three hypotheses were tested at a confidance level of 95%, with two null versions being admitted: (HAO) there is a significant correlation between the expenditures made by the government with the purpose of preventing aeronautical accidents and the Rate of Reported Aeronautical Accidents (direct correlation of 72.3%); (HBO) there is a significant correlation between the expenditures made by the government with the purpose of preventing aeronautical accidents and the Rate of Fatal Aeronautical Accidents (inverse correlation of 64%); and (HCO) there is a significant correlation between the expenditures made by the government with the purpose of preventing aeronautical accidents and the Rate of Aeronautical Accidents involving Total Loss of the Aircraft (inverse correlation of 55%). By means of a linear regression, the statistical models presented allowed to conclude that the government expenditures explain 49% of the variability in the Rate of Reported Aeronautical Accidents; 37% of the variability in the Rate of Fatal Accidents; and 25.5% of the variability in the Rate of Accidents with Total Loss of the Aircraft.